romney should take a chill pill
A lot of people will tell you that South Carolina creates a whole new ball game in the GOP primary. Voters have finally seen through the phoney Romney and are swarming to Newt Gingrich. Of course, this might be happening. Nothing is written in stone, but I have my doubts because people who get elite endorsements tend to be the winners.
So who is ahead in endorsements? Check out the web site 2012 National Endorsements at p2012.org. The endorsement winner, by a wide, wide margin is Mitt Romney. No Senator has endorsed Gingrich – not a single one. Only the Texas and Georgia governors have endorsed Gingrich, and Romney is 54-12 in Representative endorsements.
So why is Romney tanking? First of all, he’s not. He won New Hampshire and came in second in two other states. Second, he’s got the backing of the party, which translates into money and other support. Third, he’s still in either first or second place national polls.
It bears noting that Romney is now battling in his weakest region – the South. If any region has Republican voters who insist on traditional Christianity from leaders, it’s the South. After Florida, you have a lot of Romney friendly states. In February, we have Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and Washington. In theory, Michigan should be Romney central, but the Midwest can be tough to predict (see Iowa). On Super Tuesday in March, we have Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota.
Romney is the only guy with the cash to go national. If he can just stop the bleeding in the South, he’ll get the nomination by cobbling together the Northeast, the West and some of the Midwest. I can’t see any other candidate with the strategy, money, discipline, and “appeal” to simultaneously fight across the country.
My one caveat is that I might be underestimating the role of religion. I don’t buy the stories that voters turned off to Romney because of his wealth. Lots of wealth people have won nominations and the presidency, even those with slimy backgrounds. South Carolina Republicans just voted for a guy who took a million dollars in consulting fees from lending institutions. However, it is very easy for me to see how conservative Christian voters simply can’t stand to vote for a Mormon.
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I agree. Unless there’s a brokered convention (which is very unlikely).
However, don’t forget: http://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2007/04/10/obama-is-toast/
cwalken
January 27, 2012 at 12:25 am
@cwalken: BAD-DUM-TUSSHHH. I considered working up a blingee of Christopher Walken at a drum set delivering the rim shot after “obama is toast,” but it is the thought that counts, no?
Is it just me, or do u luv it 2 when Fabio’s posts look like answers to questions posed at Hipster Runoff? Coming soon to Org Theory?
Is Lana Del Rey (LDR) indie’s ‘Rebecca Black moment’?
Is LDR ‘not even a big deal’?
Do all buzz humans die?
What’s ur fave content farm?
What’s the future of indie blogosphere?
Do u generally feel ‘who cares’ abt it all?
Do u mainly load webpages ‘out of habit’ not rlly because the site emotionally resonates with u?
If u thought LDR album cycle #1 was fun, are you PUMPED for album cycle #2 in 2-3 years?
Does LDR ‘have it all’ or ‘have nothing’?
Do u <3 LDR for emancipating us from being farm slaves?
Can the farm become self-ware [via skynet]?
Where is Lana Del Rey right now?
TR
January 27, 2012 at 1:30 pm
I’d also like to hear Fabio’s thoughts on Lana Del Rey.
brayden king
January 27, 2012 at 2:59 pm
@brayden: Perhaps semi-organized music commentary could replace/augment the book forums…
Randy
January 27, 2012 at 5:23 pm
I like how orgtheory, out of all places, is where I find out about HipsterRunoff
undergrad
January 27, 2012 at 6:55 pm
“However, it is very easy for me to see how conservative Christian voters simply can’t stand to vote for a Mormon.”
Yeah, me too. The main issue I see is this: It’s hard these days, as a Republican, because of the audience, to run as a ‘viable, national election candidate.’ Romney represents an attempt to try. Gingrich is trying something different: a ‘rile up the base candidacy.’ The strength of the first is you get ‘independents.’ The strength with the second is you potentially turn out large numbers. Problem is, Gingrich has too many warts, especially the Fannie/Freddie thing. I thought they should have gotten behind Bachmann, and tried to rile the masses with her. She had it all: tea party cred, ideological purity, was always anti-bailouts and anti-Freddiewhatever. My premise is the GOP knows they won’t win, illustrated by all the best candidates sitting it out: Daniels, Christie, Jeb Bush. Knowing they were going to lose, they might as well create some new voters.
With both Romney and Gingrich, the Republicans cede the anti-bailout or anti-Freddie or anti-Obamacare rile-up-the-masses moral ground.
The preceding is an attempt to talk about politics, about which I know little and wish I knew nothing.
.
Austen
January 27, 2012 at 9:02 pm