time for pope bets
We live in a golden age of papal betting. Within my own lifetime, I will have had at least three opportunities to wager on papal elections (’78, ’05, ’13). Better than bingo. If you need a primer on the possible leaders, click here. Intrade is trading 47% for an Italian pope. For individual cardinal odds, click here. For sociology of Vatican II, check out Melissa Wilde’s ASR article on the topic. Consider this an open thread on the social science (and gaming) of the papacy and/or information markets.
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I’m interested in how sociologists feel about the ethics of prediction markets. Robin Hansen proposed a prediction market for terrorist attacks, which would seem like a rather valuable thing to predict accurately. This idea was demolished on the strange argument that it was unethical to bet on tragedy.
Graham Peterson
March 11, 2013 at 2:19 am
I say they’ll likely pick an Italian. It’s a conservative institution that will be looking to send the message that they aren’t interested in change, regardless of recent scandals. That being said, Intrade’s sudden cessation of all operations today (http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/) certainly throws a wrench into the betting process.
JD
March 11, 2013 at 2:21 am
And now intrade has been shut down? Coincidence? Just ask Dan Brown…
Jacob T. Levy
March 11, 2013 at 3:06 am
Non habemus Intradem
Gabriel Rossman (@GabrielRossman)
March 11, 2013 at 4:16 am
Fabio,
We’re about the same age and I was a toddler at the election of JP2. A bit young for making book, though this perhaps suggests a sort of Muppet Babies type thing for sociologists.
Graham,
I mention the “terrorism futures” incident in a paper I’ve currently got out for review, http://papers.ccpr.ucla.edu/abstract.php?preprint=970 .
Gabriel Rossman (@GabrielRossman)
March 11, 2013 at 4:28 am
I was 6 during JP2′s election and I was in a hard core urban catholic school. Really hard core.
fabiorojas
March 11, 2013 at 6:42 pm