punxsutawney phil performs


Today’s Groundhog Day.  Punxsutawney Phil will perform his magic: either predicting an early spring or six more weeks of winter.  Per wikipedia, Phil has predicted an early spring 14 times since 1887.   A few quick internet searches did not reveal any evidence on Phil’s record thus far, that is, whether the weather indeed has performed according to Punxsutawyney Phil’s predictions or whether it has counter-performed.  I suppose this year will give us at least one data point.


Written by teppo

February 2, 2008 at 5:00 am

2 Responses

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  1. What was the p-value?



    February 2, 2008 at 8:49 pm

  2. p-value? That’s too frequentist. What’s important is whether Punxsutawney Phil has gathered enough experience throughout the years to form informative priors.



    February 2, 2008 at 11:17 pm

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