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last pre-election obama post

I’m taking a short, but travel intensive, trip to my tia’s 90th birthday celebration, which is very far away from Ann Arbor. So, I’ll be off-blog till next week. And for the record, a few election predictions:

  1. Popular vote: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, 3rd parties ~ 1%.
  2. Crazy Prediction: Obama will take Montana and Arizona. MT would normally go Red, but it has popular conservative third parties on the ballot. AZ will flip, just because people are annoyed w/McCain.
  3. Crazy II: Obama will lose Missouri, but win Indiana and Georgia.
  4. There is no October surprise, as usual.
  5. The Democrats will get 58-59 seats, short of their filibuster proof goal of 60.
  6. Elizabeth Dole will lose her Senate seat.
  7. There will be no crazy Ohio or Florida recount/fraud shenanigans. Obama will clearly win both states. The election will be decisive in way that hasn’t happened since 1988.
  8. Al Franken will win the race in Minnesota.
  9. At least one Supreme court justice will retire immediately, to give Bush a last chance to appoint a conservative successor.
  10. Obama will have completed one of the smoothest and most innovative political campaigns in the history of politics.
  11. Obama will start hedging on withdrawal from Iraq, about a week after the election.
  12. Dick Lugar will be secretary of state, the (semi-)token concession to Republicans.

Note that my crazy and popular vote predictions are at odds. If you believe crazy prediction I, then Obama is in the mid 50s of pop vote, at least, and contradicts prediciton #1. Add your own predictions and comments.

Written by fabiorojas

October 31, 2008 at 4:37 am

6 Responses

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  1. Fabio,

    There will be no Supreme Court retirements prior to the end of Bush’s term. Remember that new appointments to the Court must be confirmed in the Senate. The Democrats would simply reject any Bush nominee at this point to wait for Obama’s appointment. There is no reason that a seat cannot remain vacant for a few months. Historically speaking, Supreme Court appointments made in the second half of a president’s term are unlikely to pass the Senate because the party that does not control the presidency holds out hope that it will after the next elections. Successful appointments of justices are generally made in the first two years of a president’s term.

    Michael

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    Michael T. Heaney

    October 31, 2008 at 8:38 am

  2. On an average states with an incumbent democrat governors would have recieved a greater share of the federal outlay in the last couple of years. Especially, Arkansas Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio, New York.

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    Rajiv Krishnan Kozhikode

    October 31, 2008 at 11:04 am

  3. Great Post Fabio!

    Hey, you have to give me some credit, I have mentioned on this blog that the amount of money in the Obama-camp coffer made him nearly unbeatable.

    (See your Obama is toast post)

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    Brian Pitt

    October 31, 2008 at 1:55 pm

  4. I predict that Obama is toast. Enjoy your tia’s birthday, I hope it’s 90 years lived well!

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    Peter

    October 31, 2008 at 1:59 pm

  5. Popular vote: Obama 53% (not so crazy IMHO).

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    Fr.

    October 31, 2008 at 2:57 pm

  6. Which justice would retire? The conservative ones are all pretty young, the older judges are all on the liberal side… why would any of them retire mere months before the new president is sworn in? Maybe Kennedy… but seems unlikely.
    Birth years of justices:
    Stevens: 1920 (!)
    Ginsburg: 1933
    Kennedy: 1936
    Scalia: 1936
    Breyer: 1938
    Souter: 1939
    Thomas: 1948
    Alito: 1950
    Roberts: 1955

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    Andy

    October 31, 2008 at 5:52 pm


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