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president paul … rand paul

Previous Ron Paul coverage on orgtheory.

Here’s a an idea. Let’s say that Ron Paul has perfect timing and wins the Iowa caucus, which is on January 3, 2012. It can happen. He’s got good organization, which matters in a small caucus state like Iowa, and a strong brand name. People hate the opposition. After Romney, Paul is the only presidential contender with a remotely decent track record. In 2008, he was getting somewhere between 5% and 15% in various primaries and caucuses. He even came in second place in a few states, like Nevada.

Then Paul hits the “Jesse Jackson ceiling.” Where Jackson could only go so far on the civil rights coalition in the Democratic party, Paul can only go so far on an ideologically pure libertarian platform in the GOP. Fox news hates Paul, as does the GOP establishment which is firmly against Paul. In a best case scenario, Paul wins some more libertarian leaning small states before Romney gets the Northeast, the West and the Mountain states in some sort of Super Tuesday landslide.

Here’s the twist: a semi-successful Paul 2012 run means that there is now a whole network of party activists who love the Paul brand and know the ropes. They’re ready to go if Kentucky Senator Rand Paul – Ron’s son – wants to run. He’s also a fairly pure libertarian in many ways and could easily pick up that wing of the party. If the social conservatives burn out in 2012 and 2016, by running against Democrats during the peak of the business cycle, then the GOP may be ready to let Rand Paul run in 2020 and he might win. The real legacy of Paul’s 2012 primary run may be laying the groundwork for Rand Paul presidency.

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Written by fabiorojas

December 23, 2011 at 12:01 am

8 Responses

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  1. ahem

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    gabrielrossman

    December 23, 2011 at 1:02 am

  2. I remember “Stop Goldwater” and that same year, Life ran a cover of campaign buttons for various senators and governors as Pres. Johnson’s veep. On the other hand, Jimmy Carter seemed like an early lock back in ’76. …but so did Gary Hart in ’88 until his love life became the story. Al Gore was the presumptive heir, but there’s many a slip twixt the cup and the lip. Barack Obama seems like a one-term president now. We might all be surprised.

    The idea of a “libertarian president” at this time is a contradiction in terms. That change must be organic, not top-down. Pres. Obama provides proof of that. He bailed out corporate speculators and he signed orders to kill American citizens without trials for being “terrorists.” The progressive left was in love with Senator Obama. Is the honeymoon over?

    A study of local government administrations showed that Democrats betray labor and Republicans betray business. (You can only sell out your friends: your enemies already don’t trust you.) If Rand Paul became President, he would most likely create an Orwellian America by executive order.

    Political change depends on a broad cultural shift in implicit metaphysics and epistemology, and in explicit ethics. When Moses returned from Sinai, he found his people (and His people) worshipping a golden calf. Leaders have a rough life.

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    Michael Marotta

    December 23, 2011 at 7:25 am

  3. […] president paul … rand paul (orgtheory.wordpress.com) […]

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  4. any future in which a president is named after a nutjob makes me shiver in the dark

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    andy

    December 23, 2011 at 6:53 pm

  5. Yeah, this is a dumb post.

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    Peter

    December 23, 2011 at 8:29 pm

  6. andy, his full name is “Randal”, named after a relative. His wife asked him to shorten it because his family called him Randy and she thought it a little boy’s name.

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    teageegeepea

    December 23, 2011 at 8:46 pm

  7. […] Ron Paul going to win this thing? Not likely…but here’s an interesting thought to ponder: [A] semi-successful Paul 2012 run means that there is now a whole network of party activists who […]

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  8. […] president paul … rand paul (orgtheory.wordpress.com) […]

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