ignore the media, obama is ahead and has been for the entire race
One of the central findings on presidential elections is that incumbent parties do well when the economy is good and when there few casualties in foreign wars. Such models tend to predict a slim Obama win. 8% unemployment isn’t great, but it isn’t bad enough to sink the incumbent, especially when most folks seem to have a positive impression of the president.
So how is the model doing so far? Well, we still have about four months left, but we have a lot of polling data. The Huffington Post has a chart of rolling averages for polls. Real Clear Politics, which includes GOP leaning pollsters like Rasmussen, reports similar results. With the exception of a brief stint in Fall 2011, Obama has held a modest lead in the rolling average vs. Romney. So ignore the media. The race is stable with a small Obama lead. So unless the economy tanks in the next few months, expect an Obama win.