last presidential election post!!

Last presidential politics post before Tuesday. A few comments:

  • In July, orgtheory readers estimated that Obama will carry about 51%-52% of the vote.
  • My hypothesis is that the popular vote is only close because of extreme anti-Obama sentiment in the south.
  • The polls are showing a slight Obama tilt nationally, but consistent Obama leads in the important swing states.
  • My theory of the election is that Obama will slightly outperform the “fundamentals.” Normally, it’s really, really hard for the incumbent party to win the White House with nearly 8% unemployment. But I think non-Southern voters like Obama and don’t blame him that much for the slow recovery. There’s also Romney’s less than effective campaign (other than debate #1). That’s why he’s doing well outside the South. And in the South, there’s an unusually large drop in Obama support that’s hard to explain.
  • As of the evening of November 4, Intrade is at .65 for Obama and the Iowa Market is at 50.7% vote share/72% winner takes all for Obama.

Post your last minute comments, predictions, and questions in the comments.

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Written by fabiorojas

November 5, 2012 at 12:20 am

13 Responses

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  1. I would be remiss if I didn’t provide this link:



    November 5, 2012 at 12:51 am

  2. Fabio:

    I just want to say that, as a political scientist who’s worked on and popularized the idea of “the fundamentals,” I think your attitude is just right. The fundamentals are indeed just a starting point. The idea is that, instead of taking a baseline of 50/50, or a baseline of a redo of the last election, or a baseline of some arbitrary historical comparison, the baseline is some fundamentals-based forecast. And then you can go from there, as you do.


    Andrew Gelman

    November 5, 2012 at 1:11 am

  3. I think there’s a weaker Obama-hating undercurrent this time.


    Philip N. Cohen

    November 5, 2012 at 4:08 am

  4. I predict I will waste most of Wednesday savoring the gnashing of teeth and rending of clothes by butthurt Rs. I predict I will look for a return to sanity by Rs at “respectable” organs of R opinion on Thursday. I predict that I will be disappointed on Friday when the diagnosis of my R friends will shift to “Romney was too liberal.” I predict the 2016 campaign will start on Saturday. Mainly, though, I will savor the gnashing and rending…



    November 5, 2012 at 4:26 pm

  5. […] was recently reminded of the importance of defaults when reading this from sociologist Fabio Rojas on the presidential […]


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