To defeat Hillary Clinton in a Democratic primary, a challenger has to do the following:
- Push HRC’s solid support from about 45% of Democratic voters to about 40%.
Obama did that by swaying Black voters and some educated professionals. #Bern has not moved an inch on that 45%. Without losing HRC’s base, it is relatively easy for HRC to acquire few more undecideds and win. So far, the difference between Obama and Sanders is that “last yard.”
Also, this time around, HRC is prepared. I still think she is a horrible campaigner, as she’s now losing the fund raising battle and has blown big leads. Amazing, since she’s the person that sitting vice presidents have made space for. Still, though, HRC now understands the importance of caucuses and has held up in two caucus states. We are not seeing a repeat of 2008 when HRC bungled by leaving caucuses and later primary states uncontested.
So the writing is on the wall, #Bern needs to win caucuses AND needs to move a much larger portion of the Black vote. We haven’t seen either yet.