the democratic primary is going exactly as planned

Long time readers know that I made an incorrect prediction in 2007 – I was convinced that Barack Obama would lose to Hillary Clinton. I made that prediction not out of spite, but merely based on the correct premise that those supported by party elite do well and the incorrect assumption that Hillary Clinton was prepared to fight off a challenger if she did poorly in a few of the early states.

If you want to know my mental model of presidential politics, it is the Democratic primary of 2016. A low turnout primary has resulted in two major wins for the insider candidate, including a 50% blow out, and one marginal win. As of today, Hillary Clinton will have a delegate lead in the race that I suspect will just grow and grow.

This is the way it is supposed to play out. If you look at the South Carolina primary wiki, you see that “insider” candidates usually win by huge margins. In contested primaries, the GOP insider has won 6 out of 8 elections. The Democratic insider candidate has won 3 out of 6 contests. Hillary Clinton’s win is only surpassed by Al Gore’s whumping of Bill Bradley in 2000 with over 92% of the vote.

This is not Sander’s “fault,” though the South Carolina result is definitely a sign of poor planning. This is the way the system is designed.

50+ chapters of grad skool advice goodness: Grad Skool Rulz ($2!!!!)/From Black Power/Party in the Street 


Written by fabiorojas

February 29, 2016 at 12:02 am

2 Responses

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  1. Sanders lost because black folks won’t vote for a Jewish candidate. As simple as that.


    Racial Politics 101

    February 29, 2016 at 12:28 pm

  2. Comments are closed on the post a few weeks ago when I objected to you calling MN an “easy” state for Sanders, so I’ll leave this comment here. Turns out you were more right than I was, since he won by a pretty healthy margin.

    But I still don’t think it was easy, given you couldn’t turn on the radio or television here in Minneapolis without being barraged by a Sanders ad. Winning here carried opportunity costs, I would think.

    Minnesota is a strange political state. The state that elected Jesse Ventura governor was the only one last night that didn’t vote Trump either first or second.



    March 2, 2016 at 12:56 pm

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