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should i read my old posts more often? predicting the tea party president

Like most folks, I thought Donald Trump was similar to, say,  Herman Cain or Michelle Bachmann, long shot candidates who were doomed to failure. But maybe I should have read one of my old posts about the damaging impact of the Tea Party on the Republican party. In a 2012 post called “The Upcoming Tea Party President,” I argued that the Tea Party had mortally wounded the Nixon/Bush establishment. By washing out so many older politicians, the Republican Party was now susceptible to take over by a Tea Party candidate sometime after 2012:

My prediction: This is the last presidential election cycle where establishment Republicans are in charge of the ship. The establishment’s “bench” has been decimated by defections and primary bump-offs. Those who remain are probably cowed by the Tea Party. In other words, if Romney loses, the successors will be Tea Party adherents. In a system where power see-saws between parties, that means were going to have a Tea Party president within the decade. Start preparing now.

I thought it was going to be Scott Walker or someone similar. Turns out Trump is that guy.

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Written by fabiorojas

March 1, 2016 at 12:19 am

4 Responses

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  1. Fabio — I was just thinking about this post the other day. I was going to mention how prescient you seemed!

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    mike_bader

    March 2, 2016 at 12:07 pm

  2. Very prescient indeed – nevertheless it is surprising that that candidate turned out to be Trump. Perhaps the inevitable result of the fact that the Tea Party was/is itself not a unified ideological movement but a coalescing symbol containing self-contradictory elements.

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    andrewperrin

    March 2, 2016 at 9:11 pm

  3. […] There’s a good chance that this narrative will turn out to be correct. But it overlooks some serious trends that indicate the DLC coalition, Bill Clinton and other centrist Democrats of the 1990s, is slowly losing its grip on the Democratic party, in much the same way that the Nixon-Bush establishment lost its grip in 2016. […]

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  4. I guess another title for this post could be “trump in the tea leaves”…

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    katherinekchen

    March 4, 2016 at 5:57 pm


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