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all the ways to beat trump, some easy, some hard

Sadly, various news sources report that anti-Trump forces within the GOP have begun to weaken. This is unfortunate because it actually isn’t that hard to prevent a Trump nomination or a Trump presidency. The Constitution and the party system has a lot of built in features that were specifically designed to prevent a Trump like figure from gaining power.

Let’s go through them, starting with the hardest:

  1. Republican voters can actually start voting for Cruz or Kasich. There are more than enough delegates left to get Cruz to 50%. This will not happen because about 40% of GOP voters simply want Trump and nothing will stop them.
  2. The establishment rallies behind Cruz. This isn’t hard to do in theory, but Cruz is a notoriously difficult personality and has alienated the people who can help him the most. If that actually happens, Cruz could probably prevent Trump from getting 50% of the pledged GOP delegates.
  3. Even without the establishment endorsements, Cruz and Kasich might realistically keep Trump below 50% of the delegates. Then, Trump might lose on a second ballot at the convention as delegates are released from their candidate. But that assumes that the delegates from Rubio, Cruz, and the others stick to a single anti-Trump candidate. This requires coordination that the GOP does not have. But it can happen and states can ensure that Rubio or Cruz loyalists become non-Trump delegates.
  4. If Trump manages to get 50% of the delegates, the RNC could simply refuse to hold a vote. Just as the Senate is under no obligation to vote on a President’s nominees, a party is not under obligation to actually nominate a candidate.
  5. If Trump becomes the nominee, establishment Republicans can run a Third Party and it would easily prevent a Trump presidency. For example, a Romney campaign could probably win Utah, Idaho, and a few other mountain states and steal enough electoral votes to make a Trump win impossible. A Romney campaign could also suppress the non-Democratic vote just enough to throw Florida to the Democrat.
  6. If no candidate wins a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives will vote for president and they could choose Cruz or Paul Ryan.
  7. The Constitution makes it clear the States choose electors. And, as has happened in the past, States could simply pass legislation to appoint electors who will vote for a person that did not win the state. Even if one big conservative state did that (e.g., Texas or Florida), it would prevent a Trump presidency.

In other words, there are actually lots of ways to stop Trump from becoming president or even the nominee. It’s really pathetic that anti-Trump republicans have given up so quickly. For a party that sees itself as the tough guys, it’s sad that they surrendered faster than the French.

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Written by fabiorojas

March 21, 2016 at 12:30 am

2 Responses

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  1. It’s even more sad to see that pundits are calling to nominate Cruz, a man who has brought the U.S. to the brink of default three times.

    Like

    mike_bader

    March 21, 2016 at 3:57 pm

  2. Mike: It’s probably his antics that have prevented him from becoming the nominee outright. He’s won many states by mainly targeting evangelicals. Imagine what he’d have won had he not shoved the Congressional GOP time after time into the darkness.

    Liked by 1 person

    fabiorojas

    March 21, 2016 at 6:47 pm


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