orgtheory.net

run, bern, run

The 2016 Democratic primary is a mirror image of the 2008 primary. In 2008, Hillary Clinton fell behind in delegates on Super Tuesday and required blow out victories to regain the lead. Even though it was extraordinarily unlikely that she could do that, Clinton continued to run until the very, very end. Now Hillary has done the same to Sanders in 2016. He got a big win in New Hampshire and a tie in Iowa, but did very poorly in South Carolina and never recovered. He can only climb back into the lead if he gets big wins in big states to offset Clinton’s lead, which didn’t happen this week and is unlikely to happen over the next month. Yet, Sanders is still running strong. Why?

A few reasons:

  • By basing his campaign on small donors, it is possible to continually raise money. He can bypass the party establishment who would normally yank support for a campaign at this stage.
  • He’s an ideological candidate. Sure, he’d love to win and is trying his best, but he wants to change policy and the terms of debate. That doesn’t require him to win the most pledged delegates.
  • It’s fun. If the support is there and you’re winning a bunch of states, even small ones, why quit? It’s gotta be more interesting than Vermont.
  • A Clinton indictment: Let’s say there is a 1% chance that Federal prosecutors will indict on a misdemeanor or felony. If Sanders places a strong second in the nomination contest, he’d make a strong case that he should be the back up. And if he gets the nomination, there’s a good chance he’ll win the presidency since the economy is relatively strong. So a 1% chance of becoming president is easily worth the time and effort.

Clinton will likely get the pledged delegate majority in May, but the primary will continue to Bern.

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Written by fabiorojas

April 25, 2016 at 12:07 am

One Response

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  1. The big picture is party politics. It is more important that a Democrat win. The Republican Party is aware of the problem that they have at this time and are trying to build up enough emotion and interest to make the election a contest. But, the two Democrats are having more serious debates and discussions. Realism is predominant in the Democrat’s primaries, whereas confusion is occurring to the Republics whose 3-prong platform: anti-abortion, anti-immigration and anti-gun control conceals their underlying business interests which propel Democrat voters to object to the inequality. The Republicans look like they will have a contested convention.

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    Fred Welfare

    April 25, 2016 at 2:46 am


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