the gop after 2016
The Democratic Party is pretty much the Democratic Party we’ve had since 1992. A member of the Clinton network is at the top of the ticket and HRC very likely to win. The coalition behind the ticket is stable, educated urban voters and minorities. In contrast, the GOP has serious issues no matter who wins:
- If Trump wins, it shows that the GOP establishment has been completely over ruled by the xenophobic populists.
- If Trump loses, probably by only about 2% or so, it might be interpreted by xenophobes that they can win the presidency if only they had a better candidate or the economy was a little worse. And they would be right.
- If Trump loses, it will almost certainly mean that the Senate will approve Merrick Garland and thus secure abortion rights for a generation. Thus, electing a weak candidate who appeals to xenophobes probably cost the GOP their core issue.
- No matter if Trump wins or loses, he pulled a “Pete Wilson” and ruined the GOP for Latino voters. Wilson ran for governor on a strong anti immigrant platform in California. He won the governorship but made California into a “No Republican” zone. This will now happen on the national level and it will probably push Texas into the Democratic column.
Bottom line: You can appeal to prejudice, but you have to pay the bill.