orgtheory.net

first take on election 2016

In no particular order:

  • The polls got HRC correct. She’ll probably get about 47% of the vote. Trump over performed and pulled independents and Johnson supporters. He’ll get about 49%.
  • Strategically, there were massive blunders. HRC lost states that not Democrat has lost since 1988: New Hampshire and Pennsylvania (unless, Philly reports a last minute surge for HRC after I write this).
  • Massive rural turn out, which is rare.
  • Social science: Surveys did well for predicting HRC’s vote, but very poorly for Trump.
  • Don’t blame the economy: Obama pulled 51% with 8% unemployment while HRC is getting 47% with 5% unemployment.
  • Social science II: Do candidates matter? Answer: yes.
  • The margins in Pennsylvania are so close that the winner could change by the time you read this.

Add your analysis in the comments.

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Written by fabiorojas

November 9, 2016 at 5:07 am

4 Responses

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  1. The results are intriguing.

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    Success Inspirers' World

    November 9, 2016 at 5:13 am

  2. Unemployment figures have been deliberately under reported. 90 million people of working age either have no job at all or part time because employers cannot afford healthcare as it is presently structured. In fact much of government reporting is not true but one needs to get into the weeds to know this. The best adviceany person can give is, do not believe the media, left or right.

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    ccree

    November 9, 2016 at 9:27 am

  3. Social Identity Theory: I hope the deficit model is finally in its last throws.

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    Gordon Gauchat

    November 9, 2016 at 1:48 pm

  4. Fabio,

    Time to write that paper about Donald and The Mule. A Pulitzer, at least!

    Like

    Randy

    November 9, 2016 at 9:35 pm


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