first take on election 2016
In no particular order:
- The polls got HRC correct. She’ll probably get about 47% of the vote. Trump over performed and pulled independents and Johnson supporters. He’ll get about 49%.
- Strategically, there were massive blunders. HRC lost states that not Democrat has lost since 1988: New Hampshire and Pennsylvania (unless, Philly reports a last minute surge for HRC after I write this).
- Massive rural turn out, which is rare.
- Social science: Surveys did well for predicting HRC’s vote, but very poorly for Trump.
- Don’t blame the economy: Obama pulled 51% with 8% unemployment while HRC is getting 47% with 5% unemployment.
- Social science II: Do candidates matter? Answer: yes.
- The margins in Pennsylvania are so close that the winner could change by the time you read this.
Add your analysis in the comments.