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last notes on the democratic primary for now

Nation Dem race

The rolling RCP average, as seen on January 31, 2020.

I just wanted to record a few thoughts on the Democratic primary before the Iowa caucuses start tonight. Who will win?

  1. The Party Decides Theory: So far, the theory is doing well. The GOP is going with the person the party leaders endorsed (Trump – no serious challengers) and the “establishment” Democrat, Joe Biden is stable. So, maybe the safe bet, especially given that establishment parties do well in the South and Super Tuesday has lots of Southern states.
  2. Biden is lame/Sanders rocks: Biden is an incredibly bad campaigner. He ran twice before and did horribly. The only reason he’s in this one is because he’s an incumbent party leader. I thought Kamala Harris would benefit, but she did badly and Sanders seems to be the beneficiary. The betting markets are currently bullish on Bernie.
  3. Not Warren: For a while, I thought Warren might benefit from Biden’s softness and I do think there is a chance she could win. But’s she’s trailing everywhere and needs multiple come from behind victories in all early states and the big super Tuesday states. She’ll do well, but not well enough.
  4. Not Pete: I totally get the appeal, but he’s a “regional candidate” who is doing well in a few places. He’s hoping to “slingshot” – win in Iowa and then raise money for a blitzkrieg in the Super Tuesday states. Possible? Carter did it, but it’s very hard as Super Tuesday has some insanely expensive states to campaign in, like California.

So my last odds are: Biden 50%, Bernie 40% and either Pete or Warren 10%. What is your best guess?

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Written by fabiorojas

February 3, 2020 at 12:23 am

Posted in uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. Mr. Sanders surprisingly is attracting Millenials to an ederly man.

    Like

    This and That

    February 3, 2020 at 3:03 am

  2. Maybe it’s undecided young people. Interesting.

    Like

    fabiorojas

    February 3, 2020 at 3:16 pm


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