biden gains steam (seriously!)

The Iowa caucus blew up last night as, for some reason, the Iowa Democratic Party was unable to tally and report results. As I am writing this, we’re still waiting.

In terms of the presidential race, this clearly favors Biden. Why? You beat incumbents and establishment favorites with free media attention and upset victories. You also need people to rally around a single alternative, like Sanders or Warren.

A muddled non-result gives no media attention to the challengers and it allows the opposition to continue and be divided. Furthermore, it allows Biden breathing room as he waits through an expected loss in New Hampshire so he can win South Carolina and a number of Southern states on Super Tuesday.

In a very weird way, Biden went from down playing bad results to getting some breathing room.



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Written by fabiorojas

February 4, 2020 at 1:58 pm

Posted in uncategorized

5 Responses

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  1. Even weirder, the lack of a decisive winner gives credence to Michael Bloomberg, who didn’t even compete.

    Predicting his failure/refusal to take part in debates has put him in a good position to win voters who sense that policy is not what this election is all about.


    Don Frazier

    February 4, 2020 at 5:54 pm

  2. We might get results tonight, but it will be drowned out by other events. Bloomberg needs the pack to argue among themselves if he is to have any shot.



    February 4, 2020 at 7:35 pm

  3. True. An even bigger winner, Bloomberg, fits in with the dominant narrative of US Presidential politics over the last few decades, the outsider. Trump, Obama, Bush were all dismissed, even disdained, within the parties that eventually nominated them. (IMHO this explains the votes for Mayor Pete — a desire to vote for Somebody Else.)

    I think that’s a rich field for your business, the dysfunction of US political parties as social groups. Too tight at the local and state levels, too loose on the national, with little connection between them. The DNC is famously run like a bake sale.

    Best as before. FYI my gf, an partner in a large architecture firm, regularly circulates your blog as an example of how a senior professionals can balance roles as a solo contributos, a team member, a mentor, and a leader within a larger community.


    Don Frazier

    February 5, 2020 at 5:09 pm

  4. @ Don: Wow! Thank you for the interesting comments about outsiders and the kind note about the blog. Sometimes, when you write, you wonder who reads it – but your note brought a smile to my face!



    February 5, 2020 at 5:12 pm

  5. (Crossing replies! Sorry.)


    Don Frazier

    February 5, 2020 at 5:13 pm

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