orgtheory.net

biden, does indeed, suck … and sanders is the winner?

Fab 11 2020

When it comes to elections, I am often of two minds: fundamentals matter and candidates matter. If we look at the whole political system, we see that fundamentals matter – incumbents win at insanely high rates and demography matters (e.g., ethnically homogeneous White places vote GOP, diverse places vote Dem). But in any political contest, it can be hard to see whether a candidate matters.

Biden has a long track record of sucking hard. If anyone could blow an advantage, it would be him. His 1988 presidential run failed before the first vote. He barely got any votes in 2008. His own boss didn’t want him to run in 2016. He’s such a bad campaigner that his advisers try to minimize his contact with voters.

But, ultimately, would the power of incumbency and association with a popular president be able to pull him over the finish line? I thought so on structural reasons – he could lose a lot of primaries and score big on Super Tuesday, as Clinton did in 1992. Yes, that’s correct, Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire. But Southern states rescued him.

A similar process might have occurred – but the graph above me shows that may not happen. Until actual votes happened, Biden cruised – but a week after Iowa, his support is tanking and a raft of new people are gobbling up votes. Super Tuesday includes a massive state that polls show is Sander (California). This collapse of support suggests that Sanders may win.

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Written by fabiorojas

February 11, 2020 at 4:25 pm

Posted in uncategorized

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