covid mitigation stringency: some data

A few days ago, commenters on the blog argued that I was fighting a strawman by suggesting we move from strict measures to a laxer “protect the elderly” position. Lockdowns in response to COVID simply weren’t happening and my argument was entirely off base. Here, I’ll briefly review some evidence on COVID mitigation measures. My suggestion for COVID – focus on at risk groups such as the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions – may be wrong, but the evidence does not suggest that I am fighting a straw man.

First, the media is reporting that many parts of the world are becoming more stringent:

• The NY Times reported that Ireland was going into “lockdown.” Their words, not mine. Headline: “Ireland reimposes lockdown.”
• AP News reports that “Czechs enter 2nd lockdown to avoid health system collapse.”
• The BBC reports anti-lockdown protests in Italy as regions have imposed curfews at night and other measures.

Of course, the media may be missing the story. They might be exaggerating things or I might be selectively looking at things. There is actually an independent source of data that tracks the stringency of COVID mitigation: The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Their rank nations from 0 (no response) to 100 (the banning of nearly all gatherings).

If you look at the data, you will immediately see extremely wide variation in government response. I have chosen five nations to show the range and how it varies over time. The US as a whole, it is safe to say, has modulated between moderate to high stringency – from 60% to 70%. New Zealand has widely oscillated between a near 100% rating and a 20% rating. Sweden is cruising along at 40% – moderately lenient but not as open as the media would suggest. Ireland has been pretty strict, but for one month, dipped low. Peru has been very strict the entire epidemic – nearly 100% most of the time.

Why do I bring this up? Simple. Many nations are definitely highly stringent and some are very stringent. Some are not stringent at all. Discussing curfews, mass quarantines, and the like is not fighting a strawman. Focused COVID mitigation – “protect the elderly” – may be a bad idea, but the debate over strict COVID measures is real and needs to be had.

++++
50+ chapters of grad skool advice goodness: Grad Skool Rulz ($4.44 – cheap!!!!)
Intro to sociology for just $1 per chapter – INSANE BARGAIN!!!!!
A theory book you can understand!!! Theory for the Working Sociologist (discount code: ROJAS – 30% off!!)
The rise of Black Studies:  From Black Power to Black Studies 
Did Obama tank the antiwar movement? Party in the Street
Read Contexts Magazine– It’s Awesome!!!!

Advertisement