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recent souciant

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Over at Souciant, run by my friend Charlie Bertsch, some articles of interest:

Check it out.

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Written by fabiorojas

July 13, 2017 at 4:17 am

zuckerberg 2020

There’s been talk about Mark Zuckerberg running for the Democratic nomination in 2020. I can see why. There’s a lot of good reasons to think that Zuckerberg could win the nomination:

  1. The Democratic party leadership has collapsed at the national level. The biggest names are all done: Clinton 1, Clinton 2, Obama, Kerry, Gore, Biden, Dean and Edwards. The entire crew of the 2000s/2010s is termed out, too old or, in Edwards case, ruined by scandal.
  2. The Democratic party bench is too old or too empty. Sanders is too old, Warren will be 71 if she runs in 2020. Tim Kaine is a non-entity outside Virginia. And it gets worse. Normally, Presidential contenders come from the ranks of the Senate and the Governorships. There are 48 Democratic Senators, which isn’t bad, and New Jersey’s Cory Booker seems to be the one with the most national presence. But the Governor situation is atrocious – there are only 16 Democratic governors!! And some, like Jerry Brown, are old or come from states like New York that chew up governors.
  3. The progressives are unable to take control of the Democratic party. We saw this with the failed attempt by Minnesota’s Keith Ellison to become party chair. Of course, this could change in the future, but so far the 45% of progressive Democrats have been unable to pull people away from the 55% of the party that is more DLC/Clinton oriented.
  4. Trump’s great asset was his ability to drown out other primary contenders in the media, which undermined fundraising and destroyed their campaigns. Then, Trump got lucky in that he faced the first ever Democratic nominee who felt that Wisconsin was not really a priority. A celebrity could rely on luck and media presence.

Add it altogether and it makes an outsider like Zuckerberg think seriously about being president. The leadership is weak, there is no heir-apparent, there is no bench and he’s got the intelligence, discipline, and money to do it. Not any celebrity could pull it off, but Zuckerberg might be one of them.

50+ chapters of grad skool advice goodness: Grad Skool Rulz ($4.44 – cheap!!!!)/Theory for the Working Sociologist (discount code: ROJAS – 30% off!!)/From Black Power/Party in the Street  

Written by fabiorojas

May 9, 2017 at 2:33 am

what to expect from the upcoming pence administration

A lot of Americans are asking: What will a Pence Administration look like? He’ll be sworn in any day now,  so it is important to get ready. I’ve lived in the great state of Indiana for thirteen years and here is what I’ve learned about the 46th President:

As with any soon-to-be President, I want to give Mr. Pence the benefit of the doubt. I urge him to steer the Republican party from it’s nationalist state and reform the immigration system. Already, it’s rumored that he’ll reverse the Department of Education’s recent decision to de-fund Spanish classes and require Russian for high school seniors. That’s a good start.

50+ chapters of grad skool advice goodness: Grad Skool Rulz ($5 – cheap!!!!)/Theory for the Working Sociologist/From Black Power/Party in the Street 

Written by fabiorojas

March 31, 2017 at 12:03 am

open thread on election 2016

What is the “sociological” take on election 2016? Use the comments. Tell us what you think! A selection of orgtheory related election posts:

Predictions:

  • Readers – HRC  53%
  • The Real Clear Politics average is shooting for 46% HRC, 44% Trump, 5% Johsnon, 2% Stein.

Tomorrow: No matter what, the GOP has a real serious problem on its hands.

50+ chapters of grad skool advice goodness: Grad Skool Rulz ($2!!!!)/From Black Power/Party in the Street 

Written by fabiorojas

November 7, 2016 at 5:01 am

can hillary turn the page?

Hillary’s challenge last night was to articulate her case for why she should be the President. For me that means articulating her governing philosophy. So far — and this includes last night — she has not really done that. She has built her case almost entirely in opposition to Trump. She is right to do so of course. Trump cannot be allowed to occupy the White House. And her safest course to victory may be simply to assert that the alternative is too frightening to contemplate.

Maybe that will be enough. But I actually hold to the idea that the winning candidate for President is always the one who has a clearer view of the challenges and opportunities facing the country and articulates a viable roadmap for how to navigate them. Despite the fact that he is a clown, I am convinced that if Trump wins it will not be because people are blindly enamored of his celebrity but because they are persuaded by the governing philosophy that many of my friends on the left refuse to acknowledge he has. He has one. And so I don’t think it is enough to paint him as a mad man. His ideas need to be taken seriously and countered.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by seansafford

July 29, 2016 at 8:12 pm

don’t be fooled: trump gave a remarkably effective speech 

I woke up this morning and started reading the post-mortems on Trump’s speech.  Andrew Sullivan pronounced it boring and lacking substance. Michael Barbero in the New York Times called it a missed opportunity.  People are getting comfortable that Hillary’s point-spread will hold and we will ride Trump out.

Those people are wrong. First, I’ll say this up front and as clearly as I can: I do not support Trump for President of the United States. His temperament, his instincts, his tactics and his values are antithetical to mine and I cannot support him. But having said that, I will also say that he gave a remarkably effective speech. And I think it will get him elected. Let me be specific: Read the rest of this entry »

Written by seansafford

July 22, 2016 at 4:58 pm

the coming progressive explosion in the democratic party

Right now, it is clear that the Republican party is experiencing internal conflict. But I believe that there is a coming blow up in the Democratic party. Maybe not this cycle, but definitely by 2020. Right now, the Clinton-Sanders competition is being framed as Clinton’s successful defense against a challenge from the base.

There’s a good chance that this narrative will turn out to be correct. But it overlooks some serious trends that indicate the DLC coalition, Bill Clinton and other centrist Democrats of the 1990s, is slowly losing its grip on the Democratic party, in much the same way that the Nixon-Bush establishment lost its grip in 2016.

For example, look at the Massachusetts’ 2016 Democratic primary. Correctly, it is described as a much needed, but narrow, win for Hillary Clinton. But look at the long term trend:

In sense, 2016 is even worse than it appears in that Hillary Clinton got only 50% of the vote  against a single far left candidate. But the pattern is clear. Massachusetts, the bastion of Democratic party liberalism, is slowly sliding away from the establishment and toward challengers.

I don’t know why. It might be cohort change or a Tea Party style anger toward the establishment. But the trend is clear – the progressives aren’t going to take it anymore. The only question is how long it will be until the storm arrives.

50+ chapters of grad skool advice goodness: Grad Skool Rulz ($2!!!!)/From Black Power/Party in the Street

Written by fabiorojas

March 3, 2016 at 4:03 am