Archive for the ‘political science’ Category
A lot of people have slammed The Party Decides for not getting this year’s primary completely correct. But I take a different view. The Democratic primary is going as planned, so that supports the theory pretty well. Even on the GOP side, there is some evidence that party dynamics are working as expected.
So let’s get the stuff that doesn’t fit the theory out of the way. Yes, Trump’s impending victory doesn’t fit but that’s not hard to understand in my view. And yes, the two major establishment candidates, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, both massively failed.
But there is one important feature of the GOP primary that does fit the Party Decides model – the elites successfully blocked Ted Cruz from becoming president. There is a great deal of evidence that the GOP elites actively hate Cruz:
- Even though he’s the sole remaining viable contender to Trump, Cruz has very few endorsements – only 7 of 31 GOP governors have endorsed, only 6 of 54 GOP senators have endorsed, and about 30 of 234 GOP representatives have endorsed.
- Mitch McConnell hates him.
- John Boehner hates him, too.
Let’s be clear here: party leaders hate Cruz and only about 20% of the national leadership will endorse him over an egomaniac billionaire and a second tier regional politician. It’s clear – the party decided they hate Ted Cruz.
The 2016 Democratic primary is a mirror image of the 2008 primary. In 2008, Hillary Clinton fell behind in delegates on Super Tuesday and required blow out victories to regain the lead. Even though it was extraordinarily unlikely that she could do that, Clinton continued to run until the very, very end. Now Hillary has done the same to Sanders in 2016. He got a big win in New Hampshire and a tie in Iowa, but did very poorly in South Carolina and never recovered. He can only climb back into the lead if he gets big wins in big states to offset Clinton’s lead, which didn’t happen this week and is unlikely to happen over the next month. Yet, Sanders is still running strong. Why?
A few reasons:
- By basing his campaign on small donors, it is possible to continually raise money. He can bypass the party establishment who would normally yank support for a campaign at this stage.
- He’s an ideological candidate. Sure, he’d love to win and is trying his best, but he wants to change policy and the terms of debate. That doesn’t require him to win the most pledged delegates.
- It’s fun. If the support is there and you’re winning a bunch of states, even small ones, why quit? It’s gotta be more interesting than Vermont.
- A Clinton indictment: Let’s say there is a 1% chance that Federal prosecutors will indict on a misdemeanor or felony. If Sanders places a strong second in the nomination contest, he’d make a strong case that he should be the back up. And if he gets the nomination, there’s a good chance he’ll win the presidency since the economy is relatively strong. So a 1% chance of becoming president is easily worth the time and effort.
Clinton will likely get the pledged delegate majority in May, but the primary will continue to Bern.