bringing the economic crisis home

A few months ago the thought of assistant professors not having their contracts renewed because the university couldn’t afford it seemed implausible.  Like the chief archivists, I haven’t heard of this actually happening, but now the idea doesn’t seem that far of a stretch. The failing economy has taken its toll on academia like it has everywhere else. Here are just a few of the (potential) consequences of the crisis:

1. Everyone suffers but the crisis may actually decrease some of the inequality between the haves and have-nots in academia. State universities are dealing with lower tax revenue but private universities have probably been harder hit because their endowments – which used to seem like limitless wells of slack resources – have declined considerably in value. This article claims that private universities’ endowments declined by 22.5% on average.  While places like Harvard and Dartmouth aren’t suddenly poor, their expectations have to adjust dramatically. New building plans have been set aside, planned centers may not open, etc.
2. Say goodbye to some of your dear friends. Administrative staff have been the first to go.
3. Many of us have already been told not to expect pay raises or to expect very small raises. That sucks, but if you’re bummed about not getting a raise you can at least take comfort in knowing you have a job.
4. Shrinking to non-existent job market. The sociology and psychology job markets have already tanked. A lot of great new PhDs will not have jobs at the end of this year, and the prospects will be no better (and probably worse) in the year to come. Many universities, including elite institutions like Stanford, implemented hiring freezes this fall. Some places didn’t start the hiring freeze until after they’d already interviewed a slate of candidates. I even heard rumors of one place that revoked an informal offer to a candidate because the dean couldn’t get the money for the hire.  Next year will only be worse. Even the b-school market, which for the past few years has had a job surplus, will likely dry up.
5. Some schools will use this as an opportunity. If you’re a school with an empty chaired position or another available pool of money, now is the time to steal promising or prestigious scholars from other top universities.  The likelihood that the competing school can match your offer is considerably lower this year than it has been in the past. For this reason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some limited movement among full profs or star associates.
6. PhDs will improve in quality over the next several years. Everyone knows that a recession tends to drive smart people back into the warm arms of grad school. This means that the application rate will increase and schools will be able to be more selective. Some people who might have ended up at Harvard, Berkeley or Princeton in years past will end up at slightly lower ranked schools. There will be more very talented applicants than there will be acceptance offers.
7. Here’s what I really hope doesn’t happen – schools will use the economic crisis as an opportunity/excuse to cut some faculty positions permanently.